The FOX6 StormWarn team has been monitoring the chance for severe weather all week. As of Wednesday afternoon, they believe the strongest storms will hit in the afternoon and mainly affect east Alabama. J-P Dice details more in his latest blog post:
This system keeps getting slower and slower. First of all, it looks like our morning commute will be cloudy and dry Thursday with rain beginning to enter West Alabama by 9 a.m.
The rain and thunderstorms during the morning should generally be beneath severe weather limits. The energy helicity levels remain fairly low during the morning hours.
Storms should cross I-65 and the Birmingham-Metro area between 12-2 p.m. Winds should be undirectional and this will limit our tornado potential. I do have growing concern we could see some strong to severe storms after 1 p.m. and lasting through 5 p.m. The instability is expected to increase with CAPE levels increasing to over 1,500 j/kg during the afternoon.
This enhanced severe threat would mainly be for East Alabama including Pell City, Talladega, Anniston, Gadsden, and Centre.
My concern is for areas of east of I-65. The storms should roll through during the peak of afternoon heating. The primary threat will be high winds (over 50 mph) and localized flooding. I can't rule out an isolated tornado threat. This is essentially going to be a line of storms moving across the state.
It's possible we could see some lingering storms through 7 p.m. for extreme east Alabama. We will continue to watch this system evolve. I would fully expect at least a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued by tomorrow mid-morning.
We'll continue to update you.
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